Are we, as a population, really equipped to deal with the flood of “data” that we are presented with daily?
While statisticians make it extremely hard to determine what percentage of advertisements contain some statistics, my gut and experience lead me to think that it is in the 20% range. After all, lines like “we have 4/5 stars,” “9 out of 10 doctors recommend,” “Save 40% off MSRP,” and “customers burn 6% of their fat in 3 weeks” all represent some type of statistical claim. We see between 4,000 and 10,000 ads per day, so without classifying news as an ad, that means that we encounter at least 800 statistics per day.
Statistics are extremely useful in visualizing problems and probabilities. Humans really like to try to predict and plan outcomes. When making any decision, we are betting on some level that bad luck won’t befall us. If 9 out of 10 people like something, you probably will too. If 450 of 500 reviews are above 4 stars, the chances of the product being decent are in your favor. Some preferences will come into play, but for the most part, you can get a general idea of whether you will be ok with your purchase.
Some statistics are more vague. For example, 40% of Americans get cancer. That alone can make you grapple with your mortality and make you want to purchase some insurance. Hidden in that overly simplistic statement lie differences in gender, race, location, and family history. Also, lifestyle choices like smoking, stress, diet, and exercise can lower the predisposed likelihood. That also isn’t taking into consideration the different types of cancer and their cure rates. Your flat 40% likelihood went from a fact of life that you can plan against to a nightmare of action items with consequences. We aren’t even going into methodology yet. What about sample sizes, standard deviations, and outlying cases? Your personal likelihood could be 80% or 20%. If this is stressing you out, you may want to make sure you have a checkup planned. 92% of people think this is a great idea, but only 62% of people go to annual checkups. That was in 2014. Did I also mention that statistical relevance can expire for a myriad of factors?
Just in that example, you have three options:
1) Believe the statistic as presented and act accordingly. (Fast and Easy)
2) Check the study for accuracy and relevance. (Slow and Boring)
3) Ignore it all altogether. (Doesn’t concern me. What is “truth” anyway?)
All three options are fair and logical approaches with pros and cons. What you choose is likely related to the subject matter, how important the problem is, and how much you know about the subject. What if you always go with the first option, though? You are bound to pick up some bad information in the 800 daily stats you are exposed to. You are likely going to come across conflicting information as well. Eventually, you feel you have to take a stance and define your knowledge on the subject, or all subjects, and before long, you are always choosing the third option because everything feels false.
This is how truth dies, ignorance flourishes, and our egos lock us into paranoid “us vs them” ways of thinking. I am sure we all feel that in some way all the time. If not, and you want to try it out, head to X, formerly known as Twitter.
So Here Is The Hot Take: Most people are not equipped to process statistics.
Statistics is a scientific discipline. It takes an understanding of proper methodology around data collection and analysis to produce a good statistic. It also takes math skills, calculus in most cases, to bring this data to life.
Who could be qualified in our US population to compute statistics? Very few by educational standards. Roughly 25% of high school students today have taken a basic statistics and probability course (up from 1% in 1990. So that is good, at least.) 8% of high school students have taken statistics on an AP level. 15% of high school students have taken a calculus course, which is generally key in higher statistics methods.
For those who aren’t taking these classes in high school. We can also use the fact that 62% of high school students go to college and roughly half of those students are required to take an “into to statistics” type class. There is an obvious, slight overlap between the high school and college cohorts, but with math majors being only about 1.5% in college, there is a move to replace advanced math, like calculus, with classes like statistics. I don’t disagree with that at all.
Sadly, taking this information from high school and college students today, where teaching statistics is more prevalent than it was in Millennials and previous generations, I can’t feel confident that the majority of the population has any real education on how statistics are computed, much less how they should be reviewed and used.
I wrote another article recently that highlighted our sliding literacy rates; you can check that out HERE, but it highlights how 54% of the population reads at a middle school level (The math skills are roughly the same), and 21% of our population is functionally illiterate. That tells me the majority of people in our country are not prepared to deal with the world of statistics in a critical fashion. They either have to accept or ignore all the information they are fed, neither being ideal.
I believe we are reaching a point in our society that we have to return to an understood set of principles for our world. Our world that we can touch, feel, and interact with physically. Our world that we understand through a shared sense of truth as real as gravity. Not the theories, but the application. As we continue to build complicated, complex systems, we are losing a sense of shared understanding about how the world works and what is actually important. If we choose to manipulate and exploit those who bend the physical world through labor by using the digital world against them, we rob ourselves of a key element of human progression.
I assure you, if you leave those who build the houses and roads, or maintain the power grids and plumbing systems for digital dynasties, the world and all its systems will collapse before robots catch up to fill the gap.
So take your statistics lightly and try to educate yourself in what matters so you may learn to filter your information the best you can. With predictions of AI-generated content reaching critical mass and the war being waged for your votes, opinions, and participation, you need the ability to think critically and skeptically about the information you are given and rely on your real and honest experiences to guide you.
Don’t believe everything you read, but read everything. Question everything and find honest answers. Be more than a statistic.